Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://library.iigm.res.in:8080/xmlui/handle/123456798/225
Full metadata record
DC Field | Value | Language |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.author | Kakad, Bharati | - |
dc.contributor.author | Kakad, Amar | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2022-07-28T06:38:49Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2022-07-28T06:38:49Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2021 | - |
dc.identifier.citation | Planetary and Space Science, v. 209, 105359, doi: 10.1016/j.pss.2021.105359 | en_US |
dc.identifier.uri | http://library.iigm.res.in:8080/xmlui/handle/123456798/225 | - |
dc.description.abstract | The knowledge about future solar activity is necessary to plan our space-based missions. As yet, several prediction models (statistics- or dynamo-based) have been developed to forecast the peak smoothed sunspot number (SSN) of the upcoming solar cycle. Many of these data-based prediction models require sunspot number until the end of nth solar cycle to predict the peak of the solar cycle n + 1. However, one prefers to have the predictions well in advance. We propose a new data-based model that can provide information about the peak SSN (or amplitude) of solar cycle n + 1, and sum of peak SSN of solar cycle n + 2 and n + 3 at the end of each nth solar cycle. The solar cycles are paired using even-odd cycles, therefore in this model n is allowed to take even number. We used recently updated, Version-2, daily and monthly sunspot-number data. The area under the curve of each nth solar cycle [An] is estimated and used in the model together with its length and peak SSN []. We noticed that difference in the area under the curve of solar cycles n and n + 1 can be used to predict the summation of peak SSN of n + 2 and n + 3 solar cycles (i.e., ). We have tested this prediction model with both daily and monthly sunspot numbers. Our model predicts; = 219.7 ± 31 and = 229.4 ± 31. As the peak SSN of solar cycle 24 is known, we get = 103.3 ± 15. Further, model suggest that the solar cycle 26 and 27 would be similar or slightly stronger than solar cycle 24 and 25. | en_US |
dc.language.iso | en | en_US |
dc.subject | Solar activity | en_US |
dc.subject | Solar cycle | en_US |
dc.subject | Solar cycle prediction | en_US |
dc.subject | Version 2.0 sunspots numbers | en_US |
dc.title | Forecasting peak smooth sunspot number of solar cycle 25: A method based on even-odd pair of solar cycle | en_US |
dc.type | Article | en_US |
Appears in Collections: | UAS_Reprints |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
---|---|---|---|---|
KakadB_KakadA_PlaSpaceSci_Oct2021.pdf Restricted Access | 1.32 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open Request a copy |
Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.