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Title: | Forecasting peak smooth sunspot number of solar cycle 25: A method based on even-odd pair of solar cycle |
Authors: | Kakad, Bharati Kakad, Amar |
Keywords: | Solar activity Solar cycle Solar cycle prediction Version 2.0 sunspots numbers |
Issue Date: | 2021 |
Citation: | Planetary and Space Science, v. 209, 105359, doi: 10.1016/j.pss.2021.105359 |
Abstract: | The knowledge about future solar activity is necessary to plan our space-based missions. As yet, several prediction models (statistics- or dynamo-based) have been developed to forecast the peak smoothed sunspot number (SSN) of the upcoming solar cycle. Many of these data-based prediction models require sunspot number until the end of nth solar cycle to predict the peak of the solar cycle n + 1. However, one prefers to have the predictions well in advance. We propose a new data-based model that can provide information about the peak SSN (or amplitude) of solar cycle n + 1, and sum of peak SSN of solar cycle n + 2 and n + 3 at the end of each nth solar cycle. The solar cycles are paired using even-odd cycles, therefore in this model n is allowed to take even number. We used recently updated, Version-2, daily and monthly sunspot-number data. The area under the curve of each nth solar cycle [An] is estimated and used in the model together with its length and peak SSN []. We noticed that difference in the area under the curve of solar cycles n and n + 1 can be used to predict the summation of peak SSN of n + 2 and n + 3 solar cycles (i.e., ). We have tested this prediction model with both daily and monthly sunspot numbers. Our model predicts; = 219.7 ± 31 and = 229.4 ± 31. As the peak SSN of solar cycle 24 is known, we get = 103.3 ± 15. Further, model suggest that the solar cycle 26 and 27 would be similar or slightly stronger than solar cycle 24 and 25. |
URI: | http://library.iigm.res.in:8080/xmlui/handle/123456798/225 |
Appears in Collections: | UAS_Reprints |
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File | Description | Size | Format | |
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KakadB_KakadA_PlaSpaceSci_Oct2021.pdf Restricted Access | 1.32 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open Request a copy |
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