Abstract:
The association of lightning activity with the long-term as well as seasonal spatio-temporal distribution of convective
available potential energy (CAPE), surface convective precipitation, vegetation cover and anthropogenic
aerosol loading over the Indian sub-continent has been studied for the period 2000–2014. The north-east to
north-west arc including the foothills of the Himalayas is the primary seats of lightning occurrences. The correlations
of lightning activity with each of aerosol loading, vegetation cover, convective instability and convective
precipitation helps us in understanding the definite entity that is responsible for changing the lightning activity in
different parts of this tropical region. Lightning flash rate (LFR) has significant positive correlations (r ~0.5–0.7)
with AOD, CAPE and surface convective precipitation but significant negative correlation (r ~−0.4)with Normalized
Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Using global circulation models from the Climate Model Intercomparison
Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), time-series of observed and projected upper tropospheric water vapor, surface
convective precipitation and aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the historical simulations (1996–2005) and
RCP8.5 emission scenario (2036–2045) are analyzed over the Indian region that are vulnerable to climate change
in terms of occurrence of convective events and associated hazardous lightning phenomena. This study indicates
that upper troposphericwater vapor (300 hPa) has a significant linkage with the lightning occurrences associated
with convective activities and strong updraft. During the mid- 21st century, AOD, surface convective precipitation
and specific humidity are projected to increase by 1.42%, 2.01% and 1.40%, respectively which may result in regional
changes in lightning activity over the Indian sub-continent.
