The 25 April 2015 Nepal Earthquake: Investigation of precursor in VLF subionospheric signal

Abstract

We present a critical analysis of the observations and interpretation of VLF subionospheric measurements related to the main Nepal Gorkha earthquake which occurred on 25 April 2015 (Mw7.8) and its major aftershock on 12 May 2015 (Mw7.3). The VLF narrowband signal used is from North West Cape (NWC) (19.8 kHz) VLF transmitter located in Australia and recorded at Allahabad (latitude 25.41°N, longitude 81.93°E). Allahabad is located very close (~360 km) to these earthquake epicenters. Two widely used analysis, viz., (1) terminator time and (2) nighttime fluctuation techniques, are applied to extract seismic related effects in the NWC narrowband VLF data. The terminator time analysis yields statistically significant shifts of ~45 and ~26 min, respectively, in evening terminator time in the NWC VLF amplitude signal, 1 day before both the earthquakes. The nighttime fluctuation method shows a consistent, statistically significant, increase in three parameters 1 day before the earthquake. The observed terminator time and nighttime fluctuation shifts were associated with these earthquakes only after scrutinizing possible contributions from other potential sources such as solar activity; other earthquakes on the signal path; and meteorological disturbances such as lightning activity, wind speed, and temperature along the transmitter-receiver great circle path. The VLF subionospheric signal analysis results unambiguously point toward the presence of seismically excited atmospheric gravity waves during these major earthquakes and their important role in providing the coupling between the seismic source region and overlying ionosphere.