Abstract:
Nutmeg is an important spice and contributes significantly to the gross domestic
product of Indonesia. The study examines the impact of climate change on
Indonesia and the production of nutmeg over Banda Neira Island. For this, the
outputs from high-resolution regional climate models under different representative
concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), within the framework
of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5/Coordinated Regional Climate
Down-scaling Experiment-Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CMIP5/
CORDEX-CORE) over southeast Asia domain are employed. The representation of
the spatial structure of rainfall and temperature climatology is found to be much
better in ensembles as compared to individual model experiments. The behaviour
of simulated rainfall and temperature from the model experiments is examined to
check whether the projected climate favours an increase in nutmeg production.
The study found that projected changes in the number of wet days (ideal 100–160
wet days), heavy rainfall events, rising mean temperature above the optimum temperature
range (25–26 C), increasing heatwave spells, and prolongation of the
warm period led to an unfavourable climate for nutmeg production. Based on the
analysis of dynamically produced (model simulated) climate variables, the study
rejects the forecasted increase in nutmeg production using a statistical regression
model due to the unfavourable climatic conditions that are likely to affect the
growth, production and quality of nutmeg. The changing climate not only reduces
regional agricultural production but also impacts the socio-economic condition of
the people of Indonesia. Therefore, the study emphasizes implementing stringent
climate laws and policies at global, regional and local levels to curb greenhouse gas
emissions and reduce the negative impact of climate change.
